隨著我們獲得了一些云計算的經驗，我們希望看到中央信托系統、驚人的大型數據庫以及更多的東西。
這周在加利福尼亞圣克拉拉舉辦的云計算大會上，有人請求我談談關于云計算的未來。這里我為不在場的人總結了五大趨勢。
第一、專業術語“云計算”陷入了計算的圈套。雖然過去的十年我都在為云計算奮斗，但我并不確定我是否喜歡這個術語。其實，概念的產生要早于這個名詞并且比術語更經久。“云計算”某些情況下只會成為“計算”，但也會作為實現計算的方法存在。
第二、我們已經開始注重“合適”與“功能”，而不是夸大的宣傳。然而，我仍然會看到許多云計劃與企業運作非常不匹配，就像方形的釘子釘入了圓形的洞一樣。罪魁禍首就是夸大的宣傳，它們驅使企業移入云計算，但是企業沒有認真考慮過自己的企業是否真正適合云計算。因此導致了企業價值降低或是項目失敗。我們會在幾年內找到合適的云計算。我們只需從失敗中吸取教訓，更好的利用云。
第三、安全性移入了“中央托管”。這意味著我們要學會在企業和云中管理身份。我們要在互聯網中創建能驗證身份的領域，就像本地車管所驗證駕照一樣。這里會有許多要處理的云來滿足單獨登入的需要，因此我們需要保證身份的安全性。
第四、集中數據會成為一個主要的戰略優勢。我們將會變得善于創建大型數據庫，使有價值的信息聚集，人們可以通過公共的API使用這些信息，如：幾十年來的股票市場行為，或是能提供更好病人護理的臨床數據。這些數據庫會用到像Hadoop這樣的大數據技術，并且會達到前所未聞的規模。
第五、移動設備將會變得越來越強大、越來越濃縮。它無需用腦。隨著移動計算的增加以及對支持移動應用程序的云的依賴，移動設備將有更多的功能，但是數據將存在云中。蘋果的iCloud就是其中之一。
That's the top five. Give them at least three years to play out.
以上就是云計算的五大趨勢。請給予至少三年的時間來使其成真。
As we gain experience with the cloud, expect to see centralized trust systems, amazingly large databases, and more.
I was asked to talk about the future of cloud computing at Cloud Exop, taking place this week in Santa Clara, Calif. For those of you not at the show, I identified five key trends to anticipate.
First, the buzzwords "cloud computing" are enmeshed in computing. I'm not sure I ever liked the term, though I've built my career around it for the last 10 years. The concept predated the rise of the phrase, and the concept will outlive the buzzwords. "Cloud computing" will become just "computing" at some point, but it will still be around as an approach to computing.
Second, we're beginning to focus on fit and function, and not the hype. However, I still see many square cloud pegs going into round enterprise holes. Why? The hype drives the movement to cloud computing, but there is little thought as to the actual fit of the technology. Thus, there is diminished business value and even a failed project or two. We'll find the right fit for this stuff in a few years. We just need to learn from our failures and become better at using clouds.
Third, security will move to "centralized trust." This means we'll learn to manage identities within enterprises -- and within clouds. From there we'll create places on the Internet where we'll be able to validate identities, like the DMV validates your license. There will be so many clouds that we'll have to deal with the need for a single sign-on, and identity-based security will become a requirement.
Fourth, centralized data will become a key strategic advantage. We'll get good at creating huge databases in the sky that aggregate valuable information that anybody can use through a publicly accessible API, such as stock market behavior over decades or clinical outcome data to provide better patient care. These databases will use big data technology such as Hadoop, and they will reach sizes once unheard of.
Fifth, mobile devices will become more powerful and thinner. That's a no-brainer. With the continued rise of mobile computing and the reliance on clouds to support mobile applications, mobile devices will have more capabilities, but the data will live in the cloud. Apple's iCloud is just one example.
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